Do you guys think there will be pent-up demand when the "green light" is given causing crowding at more popular areas, or will people be cautious about going back out?
How has the Covid-19 virus affected your adventures?
- Thread starter BradButlerCO
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Member III
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I think from what I'm reading in the forums it will be us who swamp the back roads. Some are already biting the bit to get out there and it's just starting. Nawwwww, this group is fearless and ready to take on a bear.
Enthusiast III
Meanwhile in KY... “Beshear said boat ramps, campgrounds, fishing lakes, marinas, etc. will not have to close as long as they can operate following CDC social distancing guidelines.”
I believe I can get lost in the woods and practice this, just fine.
I believe I can get lost in the woods and practice this, just fine.
Advocate III
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I believe it will be a mix, and the proportions of how many will flock or be cautious will change with how long the stay-at-home lasts.
Many will flock to parks and campgrounds and BLM like they're giving away big screens at Walmart on Black Friday after Thanksgiving. Some will avoid that mess because they know it will be like idiot shoppers all wanting to be first. A fucking viral gold rush. It's already happening with folks who want to get some camp time in before they get locked down now or who are trying to get away from the potentially infected in the city. Flocking to areas where they thought they'd be alone only to find a mess of others all thinking the same. Petri dish time.
If the reports from learned people who have personal experience with pandemics in general, and coronaviruses in particular, are seriously considered, it is easy, simple even, to understand it would be a tragic mistake to make the slowdown, stay-at-home orders last just 15 Days--like some in the admin want--and let folks flock to week long holidays to beaches and campgrounds and tourist towns. The virus will re-emerge with a vengence, with new infections and confirmed cases and new spikes in numbers.
The 15 Days will have been for naught, really. And people will cry "See, what the hell were we staying at home for?"
IF the slow down, stay at home, lock down the worst areas etc lasts the 12 weeks or more that others in the admin know is wise and prudent, and other aggressive measures are put in place as well, and most importantly the AMERICAN PUBLIC COOPERATES, the spikes and death rate will be less and the health system will not be as overwhelmed.
It's all there in actual papers and documentation of what's actually happened, not the wild-assed speculation from sensationalist seeking publication or talking head.
What I believe is happening in the US is the politicians, who do not have experience with disease and pandemic, are not listening to the scientists, who do have experience, many with considerable, decades-long, experience. Nor are they listening to those who have been on the front in other countries with weeks and months more experience with this virus than we have in the US.
Stay safe, stay clean, stay positive!
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My Linville Gorge group (old hwy 105) is having a discussion on weather to meet up this weekend to celebrate some birthdays mainly mine and my wife's. We are still in limbo pending further discussion. We have been planning this since Christmas. See how it goes! I proposed no group meals except something very hot like chili. Dr Chris, I have watched your live chat and that got me to thinking about all the stuff between home and destination like groceries and gas stops (Yea I was listening). I want to go but than again I want to be safe. Who knows? Here in NC we could be locked down by the weekend.
Member III
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The Administration is smarter than that. Trump has been saying all along we will take it two weeks at a time but he himself anticipates July or August before the bans are lifted. I listen to every interview or press conference the man makes. We couldn't have a better president handling this shit as far as I am concerned. Your right about the congressmen and women. Today the only politician who made good sense during debates on relief bills was the Republican Senator from Louisiana. Catch him if you can, he tore the ass holes out of the lame duck do nothing Democrats. He spared no words.
El Paso Texas just went on stay in place mode. I'm sure glad, people have been leaving in groves coming into NM for sanctuary. 8 people arrested here for rioting in Walmart today. The store has been stripped bare by the zombie hoarders. Dollar general wasn't even trying to stop homeless people from walking out of the store with whatever they had in their hands. Management was told to let them walk .
Advocate III
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Sorry Jim, I'm not going to listen to partisan crap about either side right now.
Stay safe, stay clean, stay positive!
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Member III
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This is serious shit man. Stay home and dont take any chances. Sure dont want to see any OB members or his family in the obits just because he couldn't miss a BD party with friends.
Explorer I
Not taking any unnecessary trips around town but I am pretty sure I am better off out in the wild completely away from other people and besides I believe that by staying home locked indoors you perpetuate the idea the media and the government wants you to believe that being you are safe as long as you do what you are told. Well I don’t believe that especially in this case. This virus is passed person to person correct then stay the hell away from people go where the people aren’t get fresh air besides if I am going to die from a virus I ain’t going to be lying In a hospital bed waiting for it. Rather be on a mtn too as the sunsets/rises overlooking Gods handiwork
Influencer III
We made it through the border just in time (from Botswana overlanding trip). We're in a national lockdown from Thursday; only allowed to go outside your home for basic groceries and medical reasons
Influencer II
Not even to hit that sort of number World-Wide my friend. Many will contract Covid-19, but unless you fit the criteria, it's less than many others viruses that go around.
Please remember, there is no cure/vaccine for many viruses that go around each year (or past years). It's typically the 'herd immunity' that slows the spread.
My only fear of all this is this becomes the new normal as a virus spreads.
Influencer II
Which is exactly the same with 'any' virus. We (well some anyway) are forgetting this. Use of common sense hygiene during 'any' breakout is important. Then getting 'proper' reporting of the situation.
Breathe folks and dawn your gloves. Plastic trash bags, plastic wrap, cloth or leather gloves sprayed with citrus acid (lemon juice).
Influencer II
Read yesterday about two states about to use their state parks as quarantine areas. That hit me strange since they closed them so 'we' wouldn't use them for that... All those stated reasons for 'us' not being there, is now, suddenly, gone...
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No, not at all, being a registered independent I think and vote the same as I’m registered.. I’m simply asking questions that may or may not, someday be answered. Personal opinion? I think that the board of directors of Fox News came to the conclusion that the lawsuits resulting from them continuing to lead their viewers astray, as they did in those first few weeks, would be overwhelming and enough, quite possibly to force them into bankruptcy, at the least. Hence, heavy duty back tracking, cyaing and a complete 180. Any thoughts from fellow non partisans?
Influencer II
The mortality rate, as all are, are based upon only those 'known' infected. This morning's numbers (I deal with US only) show 46,168 known cases and 582 died. That's a 1.26% mortality rate.
As I have said (probably here as well), we're not getting accurate information. What I'm saying is, with knowing the age groups and existing medical conditions of these people, we really can't get a true picture.
My impression is this is being blow way out of proportion. If common sense, was truly common, we wouldn't need be doing all we are now doing..
Hang in there and stay healthy my friends. This too will pass.
The real reason coronavirus is such a big deal is because it hit the country that manufactures everyone's medical supplies first. 3 things happened in China, they needed the supplies, their production decreased, and they have been hoarding their supplies for themselves.
Because the entire world has become dependent on basically one country, everyone is freaking out. In WA state, the medical system keeps saying "it's the calm before the storm, hospitals are empty right now but we anticipate a wave soon" meaning our hospitals aren't full yet, but then they go on to say "already we don't have enough medical supplies". This tells me that even if the coronavirus only filled the hospitals to capacity (as opposed to possible tent triages) they'd still not have enough supplies.
Our government knows this, and they know this is their fault.
A lot of us are saying "what the heck, the numbers don't show this as being so bad as to grenade the economy" and "we're not being told the truth" I agree 100%. But, I do know that the gov't knows we are woefully under-prepared for this, and being reliant on China for medicine and supplies makes this far worse than otherwise. So, unfortunately I do agree with what the gov't is doing, but I also believe the gov't realizes it is wrong to have let us become so dependent on one country that we can't even fend for ourselves.
My hope: the gov't is successful in preventing people from suffering due to lack of supplies (unfortunately the cost to our economy is going to be massive because so many will lose their jobs) and that going forward they begin to "decouple from China" as soon as possible.
I really believe that the US gov't has gone soft on China for many things because we are dangerously reliant on them. We need to bring home manufacturing (even if automated) of our important products like medicines, medical and military (ooh they could call it 3M!)
The US military is already training for conflict with China, and they are going to pivot towards China soon. We can't assert our principles against China when we rely on them for life-saving products. So, I hope we can ween from them after this. I also expect both Democrats and Republicans will agree on this going forward.
Because the entire world has become dependent on basically one country, everyone is freaking out. In WA state, the medical system keeps saying "it's the calm before the storm, hospitals are empty right now but we anticipate a wave soon" meaning our hospitals aren't full yet, but then they go on to say "already we don't have enough medical supplies". This tells me that even if the coronavirus only filled the hospitals to capacity (as opposed to possible tent triages) they'd still not have enough supplies.
Our government knows this, and they know this is their fault.
A lot of us are saying "what the heck, the numbers don't show this as being so bad as to grenade the economy" and "we're not being told the truth" I agree 100%. But, I do know that the gov't knows we are woefully under-prepared for this, and being reliant on China for medicine and supplies makes this far worse than otherwise. So, unfortunately I do agree with what the gov't is doing, but I also believe the gov't realizes it is wrong to have let us become so dependent on one country that we can't even fend for ourselves.
My hope: the gov't is successful in preventing people from suffering due to lack of supplies (unfortunately the cost to our economy is going to be massive because so many will lose their jobs) and that going forward they begin to "decouple from China" as soon as possible.
I really believe that the US gov't has gone soft on China for many things because we are dangerously reliant on them. We need to bring home manufacturing (even if automated) of our important products like medicines, medical and military (ooh they could call it 3M!)
The US military is already training for conflict with China, and they are going to pivot towards China soon. We can't assert our principles against China when we rely on them for life-saving products. So, I hope we can ween from them after this. I also expect both Democrats and Republicans will agree on this going forward.
I agree that Trump and FOX tried to downplay it, and they were wrong for that.
However, what would it have mattered if FOX didn't downplay it? The virus was already in circulation when they began "downplaying" it.
Is it true that when Trump put travel restrictions on China that some D's called him a "racist" for that?
As I have told liberals here in WA state, the Feds can't do anything for the state until the state asks for help. Our governor, Inslee, made a snarky comment about "believe in science" towards Trump way back at the beginning of our first deaths. However, to be fair to Trump/Pence, Inslee never asked for anything. Now that Inslee is asking for help, Trump has provided everything Inslee has asked for.
Funny enough, in WA state even liberals think Inslee is just as bad as Trump. I don't know how these politicians get elected. Everyone wants to get all turned up over their biased partisanship, but the fact is we have some real pieces of excrement in government on both sides.
Off-Road Ranger I
There are so many unknowns that go into estimating the mortality rate of a current outbreak. We are always working with incomplete information. From everything I am reading the infection symptoms are not setting in until around day 5, but up to 14. Since we are only testing those with severe symptoms we are only counting the more severe cases, but these are also those who were infected about a week ago. Under that same progression, those dying today were infected a week or longer ago. So, you will never have even close to true numbers until it is over. It is not as simple as dividing current deaths by currently known cases as most of the currently known cases have yet to run their course.
The scientists at Imperial College have more experience than I and have tried to project the outbreak in this report - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
This is not the most lethal pathogen we have fought, but it is very contagious and I am taking it seriously. 1-2% is a lot of people, but in a situation like Italy where the healthcare system is overrun and there aren't enough critical care resources to go around the rate seems to be much higher. There are also younger people ending up in the ICU. While the elderly are most at risk, that doesn't mean that others aren't still at significant risk.
We will get through this and come out on the other side.
The scientists at Imperial College have more experience than I and have tried to project the outbreak in this report - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
This is not the most lethal pathogen we have fought, but it is very contagious and I am taking it seriously. 1-2% is a lot of people, but in a situation like Italy where the healthcare system is overrun and there aren't enough critical care resources to go around the rate seems to be much higher. There are also younger people ending up in the ICU. While the elderly are most at risk, that doesn't mean that others aren't still at significant risk.
We will get through this and come out on the other side.
Member III
One thing that really stands out to me and really bothers me after watching/reading all the various stories, shows, news, documentaries, videos, Etc. is that the true experts knew this was coming. They did their best to sound the alarm, and basically got ignored or had their concerns downplayed. Not just by our politicians and the media, but also by many of the big hospital systems and insurance companies.
My wife is a nurse & trainer working in one of the largest hospital systems in the country and is neck deep in all this. She's been through several "virus scares", some real and some not, in the last several years. When this one first hit, she and others wanted to start getting the hospital prepared for the shit to hit the fan. They too had their concerns ignored and/or downplayed. My friends wife is in a similar position in a different hospital system and had basically the same experience. My wife and my friends wife are extremely frustrated with the lackluster response by the hospitals administrators who seem to be more worried about cost & budgets than about patient care.
Hopefully, there will be some good come from all this. Hopefully, lessons will be learned and changes will be made. And hopefully, we won't get caught with our pants down when the next one comes. And unfortunately, it looks like there will be a next one...
My wife is a nurse & trainer working in one of the largest hospital systems in the country and is neck deep in all this. She's been through several "virus scares", some real and some not, in the last several years. When this one first hit, she and others wanted to start getting the hospital prepared for the shit to hit the fan. They too had their concerns ignored and/or downplayed. My friends wife is in a similar position in a different hospital system and had basically the same experience. My wife and my friends wife are extremely frustrated with the lackluster response by the hospitals administrators who seem to be more worried about cost & budgets than about patient care.
Hopefully, there will be some good come from all this. Hopefully, lessons will be learned and changes will be made. And hopefully, we won't get caught with our pants down when the next one comes. And unfortunately, it looks like there will be a next one...
The truth can be very uncomfortable when it just seems easier to bury your head in the sand.
Some positive outlook:
My husband's grandma had coronavirus, and now she's recovered
SEATTLE (KOMO) - To say that we are in the midst of a truly surreal time in history is an understatement. As the death toll from COVID-19 continues to rise and more people become ill from a disease that is spreading terror and uncertainty along with it, my family - who have been directly...
komonews.com
