What would I do? (Exercise 1)

  • Guest, we will be conducting site maintenance August 4th and some downtime is expected. At this time Rally Point and the Member Map will also become an app-only feature for long-term security and stability. A few days after this maintenance, a major upgrade revision to the forum site will occur.
  • HTML tutorial

MPukish

Rank V
Launch Member

Pathfinder I

1,493
Northern VA
First Name
Michael
Last Name
Pukish
Member #

18919

As a crisis consultant, I conduct table top exercises for all types of organizations - everything from kidnapping and ransom scenarios to mass casualty events. Tabletop exercises are an amazing way to share knowledge and experiences, provide food for thought and reveal weaknesses. While a true tabletop exercise can not be done over a forum, I thought it may prove educational and fun to throw out a scenario to the forum and have members provide their input as to what they would do in a particular situation. If it works and people like it, I’ll keep doing them. Here we go...

It is autumn, the leaves are turning and the air is crisp and dry. You are traveling with two other friends, both of which have their own rig. The group has been on travel together for two weeks and, at your current location, you are a two day drive into a wilderness environment from the nearest paved road. The road in was an abandoned service road that wound its way through a valley floor and is now taking the group through a series of switchbacks up a mountainside. While the road has not been technically difficult, the overgrowth and washout made progression slower than expected. After a full day of travel, and with another two hours of daylight before dark, the group finally arrives at a great spot for camp, half way up the mountain and overlooking a large valley below. While setting up camp, a member of the group notices a column of smoke rising from the valley below, and makes a comment that someone must be camping below. The group, occupied with camp tasks, disregards the comment. An hour later, another member of the group, taking in a deep breathe, mentions how much they love the smell of a campfire in the air; this time you take note of the comment and walk over to the edge of the bluff to see the smoke for yourself. As you make your way there you notice a steady breeze against your face and, as you near the ledge, the all-to-familiar smell of a campfire. When you arrive at the ledge and look out across the valley you struggle to see the trees below; what was once a single column of smoke has now become a light fog that hides the valley floor. Your friends have now arrived at your side and, as the group looks down below and tries to make sense of the situation, a worst case scenario reveals itself through the trees and smoke - fire. It only takes a moment for everyone to realize that the fire is not contained. Even from the elevated vantage point you can witness the fire slowly progressing through the valley. You look at your travel companions - it’s decision making time.

While every detail of every situation cannot be outlined, the scenario above should provide members of the forum a basic situation from which to grasp the essence of a situation. The scenario above is presented to the forum as an opportunity to share experiences, knowledge, considerations and thoughts - there are no wrong answers.

With all that in mind...what would you do next and why?
 
Last edited:

Anak

Rank V
Launch Member

Member III

2,741
Sandy Eggo
Pack up and hit the trail.

Is that valley the source of the trail they just came up from? Or is it another valley? If it is the valley they just came up from then it is probably a bad idea to head back down the trail as that will be taking them right into the path of the fire. However, if the trail heads down to a different valley, away from the fire, that would be an intelligent choice. Otherwise, it is going to be a matter of going up in hopes they can keep ahead of the fire.

At any rate, given that the winds are taking to smoke right to the position of the campers the odds are good the winds will send the fire right to their location. That is a guaranteed bad place to be.

At the very least, find a place on a ridge of the mountain, hopefully sheltered by rocks and with as little fuel around as possible. Do not stay in a depression that runs down the side of the mountain as those operate like chimneys and the fire will be worst there. Dampen towels/handkerchiefs to use as face masks. Beyond that, observation of the environment and the conditions will have to dictate decisions.
 

Dave K

Rank IV

Off-Road Ranger I

993
Tracy California, USA
First Name
Dave
Last Name
K
Ham/GMRS Callsign
KK6PXJ
Break camp. Two start packing and the one with the most powerful radio tries to make contact with anyone listening. Should contact be made call in the position of the fire, our position and our heading (presumably up the ridge the direction we have been heading). When the other two have their stuff packed all three pack the remainder and head up the ridge. When the group is on the ridge it’s time to take a new assessment of the situation. If radio contact has not been make now is the best shot on high ground.

The ridge is where real decisions need to be made. If no radio contact has been made, this is top priority and all three should actively be working their radios. Calling in fire support to get the fire contained or at worst case asking for extraction. I assume the ridge is the best place for extraction.

Lots of variables here. Weather, wind speed and direction, fuel load, where does the road lead to, has our nav been accurate to this point, etc, etc,.
 

MPukish

Rank V
Launch Member

Pathfinder I

1,493
Northern VA
First Name
Michael
Last Name
Pukish
Member #

18919

Pack up and hit the trail.

Is that valley the source of the trail they just came up from? Or is it another valley? If it is the valley they just came up from then it is probably a bad idea to head back down the trail as that will be taking them right into the path of the fire. However, if the trail heads down to a different valley, away from the fire, that would be an intelligent choice. Otherwise, it is going to be a matter of going up in hopes they can keep ahead of the fire.

At any rate, given that the winds are taking to smoke right to the position of the campers the odds are good the winds will send the fire right to their location. That is a guaranteed bad place to be.

At the very least, find a place on a ridge of the mountain, hopefully sheltered by rocks and with as little fuel around as possible. Do not stay in a depression that runs down the side of the mountain as those operate like chimneys and the fire will be worst there. Dampen towels/handkerchiefs to use as face masks. Beyond that, observation of the environment and the conditions will have to dictate decisions.
Some great suggestions - especially the mention of depressions taking on the characteristics of a chimney. The chimney effect is a significant consideration when choosing an escape route, both in urban and rural environments.
 

MPukish

Rank V
Launch Member

Pathfinder I

1,493
Northern VA
First Name
Michael
Last Name
Pukish
Member #

18919

Break camp. Two start packing and the one with the most powerful radio tries to make contact with anyone listening. Should contact be made call in the position of the fire, our position and our heading (presumably up the ridge the direction we have been heading). When the other two have their stuff packed all three pack the remainder and head up the ridge. When the group is on the ridge it’s time to take a new assessment of the situation. If radio contact has not been make now is the best shot on high ground.

The ridge is where real decisions need to be made. If no radio contact has been made, this is top priority and all three should actively be working their radios. Calling in fire support to get the fire contained or at worst case asking for extraction. I assume the ridge is the best place for extraction.

Lots of variables here. Weather, wind speed and direction, fuel load, where does the road lead to, has our nav been accurate to this point, etc, etc,.
Communication is a top priority during any emergent situation, but it is especially crucial here. Making contact with emergency services- or someone who can - will not only inform them about the fire and hopefully mitigate its risk and progression, but it can also get you and your group pertinent information such as the size of the fire, anticipated growth rate and direction and possible escape routes and areas of refuge. In a dire situation, it may get you an airlift to safety.
 

Dave K

Rank IV

Off-Road Ranger I

993
Tracy California, USA
First Name
Dave
Last Name
K
Ham/GMRS Callsign
KK6PXJ
I am doing something against my norm and giving this thread a bump. I though this one would have taken off so here is it’s second chance! :grinning:
 
  • Like
Reactions: MPukish