Covid-19 awareness

[76_overlander]

This coronavirus pandemic is still a good subject of jokes, but, as we are involved in organizing or being part of events and trips, we must take some responsabilities and education.
@hennyoffthegrid submitted this long but excellent and documented article, and reading it might make your perspective change. So... Yes, you should read this

 

[Robert OB 33/48]

I tried, but there is no link to the article

 

[76_overlander]

oh ? it's working here, when clicking the white title it opens the article. Let's try this another way : PLEASE CLICK HERE

 

[Laurensvh]

Read it and it did change my perspective a bit on this thing.

 

[76_overlander]

It makes me think of "the equation of the water lily", book by Albert Jacquard, and which tells the edifying story of water lily planted in a lake : a water lily that has the hereditary property of producing another water lily every day. After 30 days, the entire lake is covered by the descendants of this water lily and the species dies of suffocation, deprived of space.

Question: After how many days did the water lilies cover half of the lake?

We are tempted to answer after 15 days. The correct answer is 29 days since doubling is obtained every day.

Question: After how many days did the water lilies cover just over 3% of the surface of the lake?

Just go back in time from the 30th day and see that they covered 50% on the 29th day, 25% on the 28th day, 12.5% on the 27th day, 6.25% on the 26th day and therefore 3.125% on the 25th day.

Imagine that on the 25th day, a water lily anxious about the future, draws the attention of his companions to the danger they run by proliferating in this way; it is probable that it could not be heard. : « Why worry when we haven't changed our behavior for more than 3 weeks and 97% of the lake's surface is still available?" We have plenty of time to see it coming, let's continue as in the past! "

;)

 

[Road]

Very interesting article, especially in that he has deduced trends and potential formulas for looking back to how many cases actually existed, on average and with caveats, and is using those to help predict most likely scenarios.

Reading the comments there, too, is interesting. Pueyo doesn't cite many sources, which would be helpful and lend more credibility.

I believe one of the most important things is--as Pueyo's analysis indicates and @76_overlander alludes to in the previous post's story about the water lily--that it will be gradual and then sudden. Small numbers doubling doesn't seem like much, though when those numbers are substantial, doubling is quite a different animal in the ground it covers.

I've found the John Hopkins Global Cases Dashboard (map and details with regular updates) helpful too, in learning what I can as layman:

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com

The time to start better practices and social distancing is now.


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Roaddude - On the Road In North America - ROADDUDE

Roaddude - Traveling Photographer/Writer/Artist On the Road In North America. Gear, reviews, people, places, and culture.

roaddude.com

 

[Wile_Coyote]

Good rear. However, I believe there are a lot of people that do not want to damage the almighty-dollar, and their money. So, we (U.S.) will continue to work until it's too late, and a lot of people will die. Of course, the leaders will see this as an opportunity to blame each other, point fingers, accuse, and essentially watch the herd be culled, as they sip their wine and watch from their luxury chairs.

Where I work, somebody put up a Far-Side cartoon about washing hands, which was a gentle reminder about washing your hands after crapping or urinating. And yet, just this morning I witness a guy come out of a stall, and walk right out. These disgusting, low-life, mouth-breathers could care less about anybody else, including themselves. nasty.

 

[WAYAWAY]

This bit scares me the most:

"Until 3/8, the Bay Area didn’t have any death. That made it hard to know how many true cases there were. Officially, there were 86 cases. But the US is vastly undertesting because it doesn’t have enough kits. The country decided to create their own test kit, which turned out not to work."

 

[Road]

This bit scares me the most:

"Until 3/8, the Bay Area didn’t have any death. That made it hard to know how many true cases there were. Officially, there were 86 cases. But the US is vastly undertesting because it doesn’t have enough kits. The country decided to create their own test kit, which turned out not to work."

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Here's an interesting, and clear, explanation of the facts on Coronavirus Testing, what went wrong with the initial CDC test kits, and the terminology used.

Part of the massive confusion of details available to the public is that the terminology has been confused and misused. For example "Initially, the agency said it was releasing 200 kits — each capable of testing around 700 to 800 specimens..." ---- then "Vice President Mike Pence also at times referred to test kits, when he meant the number of people who could be tested."

The Facts on Coronavirus Testing - FactCheck.org

Federal officials have provided confusing and sometimes contradictory statements about the number and availability of tests to diagnose new coronavirus infections. We’ll explain how testing works, what happened with the CDC’s coronavirus test and what’s known about how many tests are available...

www.factcheck.org

It behooves us to be responsible in checking info and not jumping to conclusions or spreading innuendo and rumor.

.

 

[1Louder]

That article is way to long. I get all of my important health information from Memes on Facebook!

^________ Sarcasm Alert

 

[1Louder]

The S is about to hit the fan!

 

[madcratebuilder]

WHO is a corrupt terrorist organization. Google the members. They are all corrupt bastards.

 

[MeHere!]

Who?

It's not the Govm'nt it's not the Media that makes this scary, it's the numbnuts (can I say that here?)

Here in Boston we went from 20 cases to over a 100 in a matter of days...cause people all went to the same conference, 92 cases in Sate 70 from this one conference...more awareness could help, but it'd have to be adhered to in order to work

 

[Road]

The numbers will rise dramatically in the US for a variety of reasons.
- It's the nature of a virus to spread at every opportunity unless contained or found out in time, neither of which has happened very well in the US in regards to Covid-19
- Once testing is more prevalent and accurate in the US, many more previously undetected cases will become obvious and part of the stats.
- We're being misinformed by a confused and rather idiotic bureaucracy that does not always have the public's best interest at heart

One thing to keep an eye on is the bullshit memes pushing distortion. Already caused riots and misinformed masses in various places around the world.

This Small Town Rioted Because Of Fake News And Rumors About The Coronavirus

Two days of chaos and riots show what can happen when people don’t trust their government but instead believe rumors and misinformation spread on social media.

www.buzzfeednews.com

 

[Road]

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To help further educate yourself on Covid-19, here's Joe Rogan's interview with Michael Osterholm, "an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota."
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[grubworm]

It makes me think of "the equation of the water lily", book by Albert Jacquard, and which tells the edifying story of water lily planted in a lake : a water lily that has the hereditary property of producing another water lily every day. After 30 days, the entire lake is covered by the descendants of this water lily and the species dies of suffocation, deprived of space.

Question: After how many days did the water lilies cover half of the lake?

We are tempted to answer after 15 days. The correct answer is 29 days since doubling is obtained every day.

Question: After how many days did the water lilies cover just over 3% of the surface of the lake?

Just go back in time from the 30th day and see that they covered 50% on the 29th day, 25% on the 28th day, 12.5% on the 27th day, 6.25% on the 26th day and therefore 3.125% on the 25th day.

Imagine that on the 25th day, a water lily anxious about the future, draws the attention of his companions to the danger they run by proliferating in this way; it is probable that it could not be heard. : « Why worry when we haven't changed our behavior for more than 3 weeks and 97% of the lake's surface is still available?" We have plenty of time to see it coming, let's continue as in the past! "

;)

Wow, now THAT really puts things in perspective. The real danger won't be that perceptible until right at the end.

 

[Road]

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Checking in with you, @76_overlander , to see how you are doing in France, both personally and as a country.

You okay?

.

 

[76_overlander]

Thanks @Road

We had 2 steps since i posted :

1) every school, college, highschool is closed with no date of reopening.
2) the next day, every shop (including bars and restaurants) is closed except for groceries.

We should have another speak from our president tonight (still unofficial right now) confirming a strict total lock down for everyone with curfew at 6PM, and army deployed for controls. Only medics could drive through roadblocks. I've heard from someone working for the government this could hold out for 5 to 8 weeks.

I see a lot of people here understanding how serious their own behaviour is and taking the good response as individuals. Of course we still see others mocking the situation. But globally, people seem aware that this is not anymore a time of jokes and carelessness.

From my old friend who is the boss of pandemics at the OMS and i think is the one who knows best anything about it : 1) getting infected is not a cure as you can have it more than once. 2) therefore there will be a second wave in october, with same effects and consequences.

As a family we are doing good. The hard thing is avoiding any contact with our parents, who are the most at risk, want to see their grandkids but can not. And knowing even if we talk a lot about it, it has not even started. Shit will hit the fan.

 

[Road]

Thanks @Road

We had 2 steps since i posted :

1) every school, college, highschool is closed with no date of reopening.
2) the next day, every shop (including bars and restaurants) is closed except for groceries.

We should have another speak from our president tonight (still unofficial right now) confirming a strict total lock down for everyone with curfew at 6PM, and army deployed for controls. Only medics could drive through roadblocks. I've heard from someone working for the government this could hold out for 5 to 8 weeks.

I see a lot of people here understanding how serious their own behaviour is and taking the good response as individuals. Of course we still see others mocking the situation. But globally, people seem aware that this is not anymore a time of jokes and carelessness.

From my old friend who is the boss of pandemics at the OMS and i think is the one who knows best anything about it : 1) getting infected is not a cure as you can have it more than once. 2) therefore there will be a second wave in october, with same effects and consequences.

As a family we are doing good. The hard thing is avoiding any contact with our parents, who are the most at risk, want to see their grandkids but can not. And knowing even if we talk a lot about it, it has not even started. Shit will hit the fan.

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Oh my @76_overlander . . . good to hear from you and that you are alright, though sorry the news is so dire.

I think much more of the world will be going on one form of lockdown or another soon. It will be interesting to see how the presence of military in the streets will be taken by some. I imagine that too, will vary as much as anything.

That a person can get the virus more than once is new information for me and, I suspect, for a lot of us. I find that alarming.

I'm glad I'm with my kid and her kid for the time being, though at my age am worried about being a burden on them if I fall ill, and that I won't be of much help if I am, then if I'm gone. This whole thing seems like it has the potential to change the world in so many ways. I hope there are positive changes in store, as well, as a result.

People all over the world are learning new ways of dealing with stress and of dealing with each other.

Here's hoping we all make it through and that an effective vaccine is developed.

Keep the faith, stay safe, thanks for checking in.

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[madcratebuilder]

There is conflicting information if you can catch this more than one time. Here in the USA Dr's are saying you should be immune for a year or possible for life. I hope this bug burns out in the next few months. Hand sanitizer in the truck along with N95 masks, I plan on more time off road than on.